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Abdenour, J I (2021) A cost estimation model for improving the budget estimates of industrial plant construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Adoko, M T (2016) Developing a cost overrun predictive model for complex systems development projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Alves, L F (2006) Stochastic approach to risk assessment of project finance structures under public private partnerships, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Bersson, T F (2012) A framework for application of system engineering process models to sustainable design of high performance buildings, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Boyer, E J (2012) Building capacity for cross-sector collaboration: How transportation agencies develop skills and systems to manage public-private partnerships, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Charoenphol, D (2017) Using robust statistical methodology to evaluate the performance of project delivery systems: A case study of horizontal construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Cho, S (2000) Sequential estimation and decision-making in project management: A Bayesian way and heuristic approaches, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: uncertainty; critical path method; estimating; project cost; scheduling; heuristic; duration
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://www.proquest.com/docview/304590702
- Abstract:
In spite of their wide application since the development of the Critical Path Method (CPM) and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), these methods contain serious theoretical weaknesses in modeling uncertainty. These methods have a static view of project progression, inevitably leading to decisions about scheduling and activity crashing that may be used only once. By visualizing decision-making problems using influence diagrams and sequential diagrams, in addition to precedence diagrams, we gain in-depth insight into a project by allowing dependence among activity durations and including the sequential nature of activity crashing decisions. We propose two estimation models by which to predict the conditional duration of a succeeding activity given the observed duration or resources of a preceding activity. First, the Linear Bayesian Model updates the mean and variance of the duration of the succeeding activity by combining its prior mean and variance with the observed duration or resources of the preceding activity. Second, the Heuristic Model estimates the duration of the upcoming activity using the approximation equation. One important feature of the Heuristic Model is that it can reflect partial information in estimating the duration of an upcoming activity. In Order to determine the optimal level of crashing for each activity, we introduce the Dynamic Decision-Making Model. An optimal crashing decision is actually implemented on the most immediate activities, while the crashing decision for other non-immediate activities is updated repeatedly based on observation Of completed activities; this continues as each activity becomes the most immediate one, until the project is complete. We compare our model, which features dependent estimation and dynamic decision-making with a traditional model, which relies on independent estimation and static decision-making. Using some example Projects, we demonstrate that the simulated average project cost using our model is lower than that using the traditional model. Sensitivity analysis shows that as the degree of dependence among activity durations increases, the expected relative benefit of our model increases. Also, as a way to reflect risk-averse behavior, we include a concave utility function with respect to project cost and then illustrate the decision-making processes and the result.
Elsherbiny, A (2021) Prediction of design error rework cost in EPC industrial projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Farmer, C M (2018) Constructing program management offices for major defense acquisition programs: Factors to consider, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Griffin, M G (2008) The lived experience of first line managers during planned organizational change: A phenomenological study of one firm in the residential construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Holmlin, R M (2016) Pre-design methodology for establishing scope-budget and scope-duration alignment for capital projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Innocent, M J F, Jr. (2018) Predicting military construction project time outcomes using data analytics, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Joao, Z R (2021) Road construction assessment model (RC-AM) to prevent contract overbilling in Angola, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Kim, E (2000) A study on the effective implementation of earned value management methodology, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Krone, S J (1991) Decreasing the impact of changes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Lounsbury, C R (1983) From craft to industry: The building process in North Carolina in the nineteenth century, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
McDavid, H A (1996) Construction and economic development: A stimulus or constraint in developing countries, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Momtazi, S (2021) Reducing cost overruns in construction projects using lean methodology, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Ngamthampunpol, D (2008) An assessment of safety management in the Thai construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Park, J (2015) Essays on the delivery of public infrastructure projects: Empirical analyses on transportation projects in Florida, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Reid, J S (2019) Evaluating the impact of using agile methodologies in heavy-civil construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Schulte, W D, Jr. (1999) The effect of international corporate strategies and information and communication technologies on competitive advantage and firm performance: An exploratory study of the international engineering, procurement and construction (IEPC) industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Shamma, E M (1988) A dynamic model for the growth of construction firms, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Stuban, S M F (2011) Employing risk management to control military construction costs, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Taku, A M (2021) Predicting modular efficiency in oil and gas capital projects using multi-criteria decision analysis, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.
Toliver, B L (2018) Implementing project management plans to control construction costs on military projects in Korea, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Tonimoghadam, F (2021) A predictive model for reducing cost and time for the detection of clashes in residential and commercial constructions projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Wenzelberger, J P (1987) The economic analysis of tall buildings (Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Boston, Massachusetts; Kansas City, Missouri), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , George Washington University.
Zhou, G (2021) Machine learning-based cost predictive model for better operating expenditure estimations of U.S. light rail transit projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The George Washington University.